Gold News

Gold Rising vs. Commodities

The real price of gold, commodities-adjusted edition...
 
The REAL PRICE of gold, as adjusted by commodities, is making some nice baby steps toward rebounding, writes Gary Tanashian in his Notes from the Rabbit Hole.
 
Here is a picture of the gold ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) vs. certain key commodity ETFs and markets, that show the progress of what would be the most desirable condition (a rising real price) for a healthy gold bull.
 
 
And then of course there are other notable measures like Gold vs. Stock Markets. Here is the progress vs. SPY and EZU...
 
 
Recovery would have to start somewhere, and the fledgling moves above show that gold is above the SMA 50 in EZU (Europe) units but still has work to do in SPY units.
 
Finally, below is our big picture road map NFTRH has been working to in a) managing risk against the gold bear market and b) not having its analysis shaken out of the fact that thereal price of gold remains in a secular bull market and thus, so too does gold.
 
The long term Gold vs. CCI commodity index has been a core (even the core) chart in NFTRH's biggest picture macro themes including prominently, secular economic contraction. As long as point 4 holds a higher high (to 2), that theme remains a good one.
 
 
NFTRH was the first that I knew of to talk about a bullish economic phase in early 2013 when most people were under their respective rocks hiding as law makers went through the dreaded Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Dance. That was due to industry information I had about the Semiconductor equipment sector and also due to indicators like the Palladium-Gold ratio (ref. 1st chart above). But the chart directly above paints said recovery (post-2011) as a counter trend economic up cycle within an ongoing cycle of economic contraction.
 
Why do policy makers continue to fight the good inflationary fight? Why, look no further than this chart. Gold rising vs. the things of positive economic correlation indicates an ongoing phase of global economic contraction.
 
If you would like to get with the service that got it right and kept it right all through the bear market but maybe find some of the concepts confusing (they are, considering that the concepts are quietly presented against high levels of noisy analysis out there across the macro markets) just drop me a line for more detailed explanation any time after you subscribe.
 
I am going to make a concerted effort to be very clear in explaining the why's and why nots about what lay ahead. 2014 was identified in NFTRH as a time for a 'Macro Pivot' and when the macro pivots, you definitely want to be on the right side of coming events.

Gary Tanashian successfully owned and operated a progressive medical component manufacturing company for 21 years, through various economic cycles. This experience gave Gary an understanding of and appreciation for global macroeconomics as it relates to individual markets and sectors. Along the way, Gary developed an almost geek-like interest in technical analysis (TA), to add to a long-time interest in human psychology. Various unique macro market ratio indicators were also added to the mix, with the result being a financial market newsletter, Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH) that combines these attributes.

See the full archive of Gary Tanashian.

Please Note: All articles published here are to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please review our Terms & Conditions for accessing Gold News.

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